Methodological Approach

The Heidelberg Institute on International Conflict Research (HIIK) bases its research on a qualitative definition of conflict and war. Wars and conflicts of lesser intensity are classified according to the actual amount of violence observed, and not according to the number of fatalities. This approach ensures that even in the case of historical changes in the way conflicts are carried out, the conflict remains recordable and comparable. The characteristics, duration and frequency of the conflict measures implemented are crucial in the classification of conflicts into the different intensity levels. These measures are documented in the COSIMO/CONIS database as well as encoded and attributed to the actor in question. Over the past years, the view on international conflicts has shifted considerably. While interstate conflicts were of top-most interest to conflict researchers for years, the much higher number of intrastate conflicts has now pushed to the front. We have enhanced our methodological approach in order to account for the new questions arising from this development.

Widened Definition of Conflict

Due to the fact that many conflicts can be observed in weakened or collapsed states who are unable to intervene with their own troops, the HIIK has enhanced its definition of conflict for the first time since 1991. From now on, conflicts will be recorded even if there is no state among the conflict parties. The national value of the conflict items remains decisive.

Widened Scale of Intensities

The HIIK has widened its intensity levels in order to be able to better account for peculiarities of violent conflicts as well for the dynamics of escalation and deescalation: there are now five intensity levels instead of four. In order to allow a more differentiated view on the transition of non-violent to violent conflicts, a medium level has been installed. It captures single or occasional acts of violence like e.g. riots, coups d'états or terrorist attacks. The table below depicts the range of the widened intensity scale by naming exemplary key occurrences for each level. In addition, there is a direct comparison to the former scale.

Widened Conflict Items

Modifications were also made on the part of the conflict items. Instead of formerly three, there can now be recorded an unlimited number of conflict items. The former conflict items of Territory, Secession, Autonomy, Ideology/ System, National Power, International Power and Resources have been further differentiated. E.g. for the category of Resources this means that it can now be clearly recorded which resource (oil, diamonds, water…) is under dispute. The conflict item of Regional Predominance was newly included. It stands for conflicts in which an intrastate group attempts to gain control over a certain area without the goal of gaining power over the entire state (National Power) or of forming a new state (Secession).

Development of COSIMO 2.0/CONIS

In order to increase the number of descriptive variables, to depict the graphs of conflicts more exactly and also to enhance the possibilities of analysis, KOSIMO was transferred into a relational database system. For the future, this will allow us to record an unlimited amount of data concerning conflicts and actors involved. Additions and expansions can be added at any time. By linking e.g. data on conflict dynamics and structural country data comprehensive analyses can be made that allow new insights into decisive factors of conflict dynamics.